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Our 2008 Ruffed Grouse Outlook

So how does this explain good hunting in some areas and poor hunting in others? The Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness was decent for grouse and the south-central band of Minnesota provided good hunting.

"The thing I like about this theory is the snow was variable last year across the landscape," Horton said. "We didn't have much in this north-central range, but south of us there was good snow. I had reports of good hunting in Aitkin and Crow Wing counties and south of the Grand Rapids area. Given the snow patterns last year it makes sense. And in the boundary waters, they always get plenty of snow. That might explain the variability and what hunters actually saw last season."

With this in mind, shouldn't 2008 be pretty good?


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"We had good snow in December this year, but it was sparse in January, February and early March," he said. "Fortunately, that early snow stayed fluffy because we never got a mid-winter warmup. So, it was really good roosting snow all winter. I think our birds this year are coming through the winter in fine shape."

For those that follow the grouse cycle, 2008 is supposed to be on the top side of the peak.

"If you look at the calendar and the timing of everything we should be trending upwards," Horton said. "But people sometimes hang their hat on that 10-year cycle, and if you look back, it's an 'about 10-year' cycle. There is some variability there."

So, what causes the cyclical nature of grouse? Why do some years show high numbers and some years low, and why do these fluctuations seem to follow a predictable pattern?

"We still haven't come up with the perfect answer," Horton said. "There's some research around that I was involved with that looks at the combination of winter weather, snow and predators and it says there is something there. It's the best fit because there is just no one thing to explain the cycle. There are a number of factors that come together and make the cycle work. Look at ducks and pheasants. There are years when they come and go and it has everything to do with economics and farming practices and rainfall patterns. It's not one variable. If we get decent survival through the summer, we'll have good hunting. If you have good conditions for chick survival, you can get such a big jump in the population. Even though drumming counts aren't that good, you will still have great hunting."

Usually when it comes to wildlife, all eyes are on the state and federal legislative branches. This year, the Farm Bill changes kept many conservation groups on the edge. When it comes to grouse, though, farm legislation isn't much of a factor.

"It doesn't affect grouse at all," Horton said. "There's some money in the farm bill for cost-sharing on forestry practices and we do promote some of that for private individuals with the forest, but it doesn't play a big role.


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